又中又英｜Conventional wisdom

What goes up must come down. That is the conventional wisdom. The expression “conventional wisdom” means beliefs or ideas that most people accept are true. The conventional wisdom is that washing hands with soap and water can help people avoid diseases such as Covid. It is not only conventional wisdom but a fact that stock markets that go up must come down sooner or later. During the Covid pandemic, my retirement savings were in a free fall because the stock market was in a free fall. If your retirement savings go into a free fall, it means your savings have lost a lot of value very quickly.

My retirement savings regained their former value after the pandemic. But the US stock market has been going up and down in recent months. After the US Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by half a percent last week, the stock market rose two days later. I was floating on air when the value of my retirement savings went up. If you are floating on air, it means you feel very happy. But the market dropped a little a day later. The US economy is in good shape and the Federal Reserve has hinted it will cut interest rates two more times this year.

US stock markets are at or near record highs. Will the coming interest cuts make them rise further? No one knows. Some experts expect a recession in a year or two. Others say that will not happen unless the US economy contracts in the near future. Journalists don’t make much money. That’s why my retirement savings are in safe investments.

所有升上去的必然會降下來，這是conventional wisdom——習語「conventional wisdom」就是傳統智慧，大部分人都相信的觀念或想法。傳統智慧（conventional wisdom）告訴我們，用肥皂和水洗手有助防止疾病如新冠肺炎的傳播。股票市場上漲，早晚還是會跌下來，這不單是傳統智慧（conventional wisdom），更是一個事實。在新冠疫情期間，我的退休儲蓄猶如自由落體（in a free fall），因為股票市場亦是自由落體（in a free fall）。若你的退休儲蓄go into a free fall，意即儲蓄的價值急速下跌。

疫情過後，我的退休儲蓄已能回復到它們之前的價值。但在最近幾個月，美國股票市場起起跌跌。美聯儲上星期減息半厘，股票市場在兩天後上升。眼見我那些退休儲蓄的價值上漲，我立時感到飄飄然（floating on air）。若你是floating on air，意即你非常高興、得意洋洋。但在一天之後，市場又下跌了一些。美國經濟良好，聯儲暗示會在今年內再減兩次息。

美國股票市場現正處於或接近歷史高位。接下來的減息會否進一步推高市場？沒有人知道。有些專家預計會在一兩年內面臨衰退，另一些則說那不會發生，除非美國經濟在不久的將來收縮。新聞工作者並不賺大錢，因此我的退休儲蓄都是放在低風險的投資。

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Michael Chugani褚簡寧
中譯：七刻