又中又英｜Conventional wisdom

What goes up must come down. That is the conventional wisdom. The expression “conventional wisdom” means beliefs or ideas that most people accept are true. The conventional wisdom is that washing hands with soap and water can help people avoid diseases such as Covid. It is not only conventional wisdom but a fact that stock markets that go up must come down sooner or later. During the Covid pandemic, my retirement savings were in a free fall because the stock market was in a free fall. If your retirement savings go into a free fall, it means your savings have lost a lot of value very quickly.

My retirement savings regained their former value after the pandemic. But the US stock market has been going up and down in recent months. After the US Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by half a percent last week, the stock market rose two days later. I was floating on air when the value of my retirement savings went up. If you are floating on air, it means you feel very happy. But the market dropped a little a day later. The US economy is in good shape and the Federal Reserve has hinted it will cut interest rates two more times this year.

US stock markets are at or near record highs. Will the coming interest cuts make them rise further? No one knows. Some experts expect a recession in a year or two. Others say that will not happen unless the US economy contracts in the near future. Journalists don’t make much money. That’s why my retirement savings are in safe investments.

所有升上去的必然会降下来，这是conventional wisdom——习语「conventional wisdom」就是传统智慧，大部分人都相信的观念或想法。传统智慧（conventional wisdom）告诉我们，用肥皂和水洗手有助防止疾病如新冠肺炎的传播。股票市场上涨，早晚还是会跌下来，这不单是传统智慧（conventional wisdom），更是一个事实。在新冠疫情期间，我的退休储蓄犹如自由落体（in a free fall），因为股票市场亦是自由落体（in a free fall）。若你的退休储蓄go into a free fall，意即储蓄的价值急速下跌。

疫情过后，我的退休储蓄已能回复到它们之前的价值。但在最近几个月，美国股票市场起起跌跌。美联储上星期减息半厘，股票市场在两天后上升。眼见我那些退休储蓄的价值上涨，我立时感到飘飘然（floating on air）。若你是floating on air，意即你非常高兴、得意洋洋。但在一天之后，市场又下跌了一些。美国经济良好，联储暗示会在今年内再减两次息。

美国股票市场现正处于或接近历史高位。接下来的减息会否进一步推高市场？没有人知道。有些专家预计会在一两年内面临衰退，另一些则说那不会发生，除非美国经济在不久的将来收缩。新闻工作者并不赚大钱，因此我的退休储蓄都是放在低风险的投资。

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Michael Chugani褚简宁
中译：七刻