又中又英｜October surprise

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are wondering and waiting to see if there will be an October surprise before the US presidential election. An October surprise could move the needle for or against the two candidates depending on what the October surprise is. Most people outside the US may not know what an October surprise is. US presidential elections are held every four years in early November. This year’s election is on November 5. An October surprise is a last-minute surprise in October, just before the November election, that moves the needle for or against a candidate.

If something moves the needle, it means it causes a big change in a situation, such as an election. There have been several October surprises in recent elections, but the biggest was during the 2016 election race between Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. On October 7, 2016, a 2005 Trump recording was leaked to the Washington Post. Trump was heard saying that, as a star, he could sexually touch the private parts of women without getting into trouble. Trump apologized when he realized it was a huge October surprise that could hurt his election.

Several weeks later, on October 28, the FBI Director at the time, James Comey, announced a new investigation into the use of outside servers by Clinton and the husband of her top aide for possible classified emails. Clinton’s October surprise hurt her more than Trump’s October surprise. She lost the election. Will there be another October surprise? There have been so many surprises already since Harris took over as the Democratic Party’s candidate from Joe Biden that only a huge one will move the needle.

副總統賀錦麗和前總統唐納德‧特朗普都在思忖和等着看，美國總統大選前會否有一個「10月驚奇」（October surprise）？10月驚奇（October surprise）可以大大影響（move the needle）選情，是有利或不利於兩個候選人，則視乎是甚麼10月驚奇（October surprise）。美國以外的大多數人，大概都不知道10月驚奇（October surprise）是甚麼。美國總統選舉每4年的11月初舉辦一次。這一年的選舉是在11月5日。An October surprise就是剛好在11月大選之前，10月的最後一刻才出現，足以撼動（moves the needle）一個候選人選情的事件。

若某事情 moves the needle，意即它會為一個形勢，例如選舉，帶來巨大的改變。在最近那幾次選舉之中，也出現過幾個10月驚奇（October surprises），但最震撼的一次要算2016年特朗普與前國務卿希拉莉‧克林頓的選戰。2016年10月7日，特朗普一個2005年的錄音洩露給《華盛頓郵報》。錄音中聽到特朗普說道，做明星的時候，他可以性觸摸女人的私處，而不會有任何麻煩上身。特朗普意識到這是一個極大的10月驚奇（October surprise），足以損害他的選情，他便道歉了。

幾個星期後，10月28日當天，當時的聯邦調查局長詹姆士‧柯米宣布，要就希拉莉以及其心腹助手的丈夫，使用私人伺服器處理有可能是機密電郵的案件重新展開調查。比起特朗普的10月驚奇（October surprise），希拉莉的10月驚奇（October surprise）更加傷害她。她最終落敗。這一次又會不會有另一個10月驚奇（October surprise）？自從賀錦麗取代祖‧拜登成為民主黨的候選人以來，已經有許多驚奇了，只有一個大的震撼彈才足以撼動（move the needle）選情。

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Michael Chugani褚簡寧
中譯：七刻